Negative interest rates explained

Even as the world slowly “reopens” amid record low interest rate environment almost across the globe, there are calls from the leading economists like in Australia, or from the US President, urging the respective central banks to move the negative interest rates. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, disagrees, and seems so is the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, as well, given that RBA held fort and continued with the ultra-low interest rates (0.25%) in Australia, in their policy announcement last week.

Well, ultra-low or negative interest rates are not new for the world. Nordics, parts of EU and Japan has seen negative interest rates for some years now. Experience from these countries says, though, these were imagined and hoped for to be short term booster shots for the economy, however, they turned out to be sticky. And these economies have seen negative interest rates for more than 4 years now. We shall come back to them again. Lets first understand what negative interest rates mean or why are we seeing increasing calls for central banks to bring interest rates to the negative territory.

In layman terms, one can say, negative interest rates would mean, one is paid to borrow money from banks, or one is charged to keep money with the banks. Essentially, you are instigating people to borrow more and spend more and trigger the ripple effects of such spending to support the slowing economy. All thanks to Covid-19, as the world economy falls into the recessionary zone, negative interest rate is being strongly proposed as a tool to stimulate growth the world over.

As the central banks mull over this, negative interest rates would essentially mean, banks would be charged money to maintain excess liquidity in the system. Thus, disincentivising them to maintain excess deposits, and forcing them to lend more money.

As a banking customer, one’s cost of money becomes very cheap. One can borrow money at very low rates and may even be paid to borrow money. In Denmark, where negative interest rates have prevailed for a while now, upon taking a mortgage, a bank doesn’t pay the cash directly to the customer, instead, adjusts the mortgage amount outstanding each month by more than what the customer has paid back. Thereby, shortening the overall mortgage payback period for the customer. Such low rate mortgages can hopefully trigger a housing boom and have a spiralling effect on the economy, as one would then consume various other products and services associated with the purchase of the house.

Borrowers with existing debts are encouraged to consolidate their debts outstanding at a much lower rate, allowing them to save money, which can then be spent on other consumption items, which can support the overall economy.

Savers are discouraged to save with the banks. They either earn no interest on savings or are charged a fee to save. Thereby, encouraging them to spend more. Banks in Denmark, Switzerland, Sweden, Japan, where negative interest rates have prevailed for some years now, give no interest to their customers who save with them. However, they do charge a fee for savings beyond a certain threshold.

Negative interest rates are bad for the savers. With no returns on the savings with the banks, and add to it the inflation (however, low it is), one is losing money by keeping money with the bank. If such a situation prevails, it is likely to change consumer behaviour in the long run, as one has traditionally been encouraged to save. This is likely to build a purely consumption driven society, as one is incentivised to spend and not save up. This may even affect the risk averse investors, as they may end up gravitating towards risky assets in search of returns, which are not available in traditional savings anymore. Senior Citizens, who are encouraged to keep their money in savings and enjoy the sunset years of their life through the steady interest income, will be another segment of customers who will be adversely affected. This is also likely to have long term effects on the retirement planning of individuals and thus investment strategies of retirement and pension funds.

Besides, the changing consumer behaviour, there are other challenges for banks as well. Negative rates would affect the bank bottom lines significantly. They will have to find ways to increase margins to maintain profitability. Prolonged ultra-low to negative interest rates, can affect the overall health of the banks and financial institutions and could eventually lead to them holding off lending and thereby affecting the economy adversely. With depositors shying away from keeping their savings with the banks, this may even lead to hoarding of cash, heard of during the Great Depression.

With changing customer behaviour, banks will have to change their product and service offerings to the customer. Innovative product offerings, for e.g. interest earnings on deposits tied to certain cash flows by the customer, can be a good start. Or simply tying interest earnings to investment products, can be options that can be looked at. Personalisation of the product or offer to the customer, depending on the customer’s individual circumstance, would be required.

Supported by some learnings from Japan, EU, one can safely say, that cheap money does not always spur business expansion and economic activity. It just takes cost of money out of equation. Having said this, economists around the world are urging central banks to go for them. And whether they will spur the world economy or not, is to be seen.